Seminario "Aggregating extreme-value distributions in multi-model ensemble outputs for bias correction" - Dott.ssa Emilia Siviero, DAIS Università Ca' Foscari di Venezia - 11/12/25 16:00 - Edificio D, 3° piano, Aula 3_B

Tipologia evento: 
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Data evento
Data inizio evento: 
11/12/2025 - 16:00
Data fine evento: 
11/12/2025 - 17:30
Data pubblicazione evento
Pubblicato il: 
01/12/2025
Sede: 
Trieste

Giovedì 11 dicembre 2025 alle ore 16:00 la Dott.ssa Emilia Siviero, assegnista di ricerca presso il Dipartimento di Scienze Ambientali, Informatica e Statistica dell'Università Ca' Foscari di Venezia, terrà il seminario dal titolo "Aggregating extreme-value distributions in multi-model ensemble outputs for bias correction". Il seminario è aperto a tutti gli interessati e si svolgerà presso l'aula 3_B del Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Aziendali, Matematiche e Statistiche "Bruno de Finetti". 

Luogo: 

DEAMS - Edificio D, 3° piano, Aula 3_B.

Promotore: 

DEAMS - Dott. Vincenzo Gioia e Prof.ssa Roberta Pappadà.

Informazioni: 

Accurately anticipating future changes in temperature and precipitation, for example, is crucial for climate impact assessments. Climatologists typically rely on large ensembles of global climate models by combining their outputs into multi-model ensembles. However, this approach struggles to balance global accuracy with local precision, often leading to suboptimal strategies. Although climate simulations provide valuable insights, the representation of extreme events lacks reliability. Distribution-based aggregation methods, such as the recently proposed $\alpha$-pooling approach, address potential biases by statistically weighting and combining the different outputs. The $\alpha$-polling approach is applied to the whole distribution. In this work, we focus on the tail of the distribution and use models from Extreme Value Theory to explore the extent to which methods aggregating climate model output are able to reproduce the tail distribution of observations. We illustrate our methodological proposal by examining the case of two variables: temperature and precipitation intensity.

Ultimo aggiornamento: 02-12-2025 - 11:21
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