Seminar "Expectation–Maximization for Multivariate Claim Counts: Varying Dispersion and Dependence" - Prof. Georgios Tzougas, Heriot-Watt University & current VP DEAMS - 12/12/25 3:00 pm - Building D, 1st floor, 1_A Conference Room

Tipologia evento: 
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Data evento
Data inizio evento: 
12/12/2025 - 15:00
Data fine evento: 
12/12/2025 - 16:00
Data pubblicazione evento
Pubblicato il: 
01/12/2025
Sede: 
Trieste

On Friday, 12 December 2025, at 3 p.m., Prof. Georgios Tzougas from Heriot-Watt University in Edinburgh and current Visiting Professor at DEAMS will hold a seminar entitled ‘Expectation–Maximisation for Multivariate Claim Counts: Varying Dispersion and Dependence’. The event will take place in Building D, 1st floor, Conference Room 1_A.

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Venerdì 12 dicembre 2025 alle ore 15.00 il Prof. Georgios Tzougas da Heriot-Watt University di Edimburgo e attuale Visiting Professor al DEAMS terrà il seminario dal titolo "Expectation–Maximization for Multivariate Claim Counts: Varying Dispersion and Dependence". L'appuntamento è in Edificio D, 1° piano, Sala Conferenze 1_A.

Luogo: 

DEAMS - Building D, 1st floor, 1_A Conference Room "Bruno de Finetti"

Promotore: 

DEAMS - Dott. Mario Marino.

Informazioni: 

This talk presents a regression framework for multivariate claim frequencies that accounts for overdispersion arising from unobserved heterogeneity and for dependencies between claim types that can be positive or negative. The focus is on multivariate count models in which Poisson components are linked through continuous latent effects with continuous marginals combined via copulas. This structure allows flexible dependence modelling and remains identifiable under mild regularity conditions. Estimation is carried out using a Monte Carlo Expectation–Maximization algorithm, which treats the latent variables as missing data and enables maximum likelihood inference when the joint distribution is intractable. A case study on the Wisconsin Local Government Property Insurance Fund shows that the proposed approach captures dependence patterns well and improves predictive performance compared to existing benchmarks. Diagnostic analyses further support the adequacy of the fit. The results highlight the importance of allowing both dispersion and dependence to vary with covariates when assessing and pricing risk in non-life insurance portfolios.

Contatti: 
Expectation–Maximization for Multivariate Claim Counts: Varying Dispersion and Dependence | Partecipazione alla riunione | Microsoft Teams https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3ameeting_NzMzMWZhNTctMzRlNi00ZjhhLTkxNTctZWM3ZmVmM2RjNDAx%40thread.v2/0?context=%7b%22Tid%22%3a%22a54b3635-128c-460f-b967-6ded8df82e75%22%2c%22Oid%22%3a%2230ab5a51-9990-4968-916c-b087e7723cac%22%7d
Ultimo aggiornamento: 01-12-2025 - 15:08
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